The US and the Taliban have agreed that they would like to hold a seven-day ceasefire. The chances of it actually happening varies by the day, and it’s not clear whether Donald Trump and those close to him do genuinely want a deal. Beyond those hurdles, however, could a short-term ceasefire open into a lasting peace – one that brings stability while ensuring respect for human rights?
From the US perspective, the war is low profile but extraordinarily intense. The country’s armed forces are dropping many more bombs than a decade ago, when they had many more boots on the ground. Back in 2010 and 2011 there were 5,100 and 5,411 munitions dropped each year respectively, both missiles and guided and unguided bombs, and 100,000 troops in Afghanistan. Compare this with 2018 and 2019, when the troops numbers were down to 13,000 but munitions used were 7,362 and 7,423 respectively.
Under such a barrage the Taliban should be desperate for peace talks, but the evidence suggests otherwise. As The New York Times reported recently, “Despite a concerted bombing campaign and American and Afghan offensive ground operations, Taliban fighters are still able to attack at levels similar to a decade ago.” The Taliban mounted 8,204 attacks in the last quarter of last year – more than any fourth-quarter total since the record began in 2010 – and 37% of them inflicted casualties. US Special Forces attacks more than doubled between 2018 and 2019, but evidently failed to repress the Taliban.
