![scare_0[1].jpg](https://cdn2.opendemocracy.net/media/original_images/scare_01_TgjZx72.jpg)
Current polls suggest a UK 'yes' vote as most likely but polls from as recently as 2013 and 2014 suggest the opposite – an English 'no' and a Scottish 'yes' to the EU. So it is too soon to call it for the 'yes' side. And with the EU referendum possibly less than a year away – perhaps even June 2016 – Scotland's government would need to move fast if the UK retreated from Europe, or it might find Scotland on the outside of the EU too.
A UK 'no' to Europe would be a big shock – for both the UK and EU. Yet the political pressure after a 'no' would be for the UK to exit the EU rapidly, and so the fundamental questions and details of the UK's future relations with the EU would need tackling quickly.