When the Ukrainian army recaptured Kherson three weeks ago, there seemed some prospect of the war moving into a final phase that could end with sufficient Russian retreats to make some kind of negotiated settlement possible.
But the mood has since changed, with increasing insistence from Ukraine that all territory taken by Russia since 2015 be returned, including Crimea. This would require such a degree of capitulation that Vladimir Putin might seriously threaten an escalation to weapons of mass destruction.
This makes it unlikely that talks will get under way any time soon – but there are other paths of war available as winter encroaches, and one recent development may mark the start of one in particular.
