Merkel and Cameron, 2011.Wikicommons/Sebastian Zvez. Some rights reserved.The UK's path to a referendum on its EU membership is already a central issue for David Cameron's new government. Ministers are set to travel to Brussels, Berlin and other capitals ahead of an EU leaders' summit at the end of June - opening up negotiation on Britain's demands for reform, opt-outs, new language and more. Expect much heat and dust, smoke and mirrors but not much light in this debate.
Cameron wants to be able to tell the British public he has negotiated an important, beneficial deal for the UK. But this is unlikely - small concessions not major changes are the likely order of the day - and so there will be a political charade around the talks and eventual outcome.
There are key political questions here: what are the chances Cameron will bring anything substantive back from Brussels? Will other supporters of the UK's EU membership back Cameron or will they run their own separate campaigns - a divided 'yes' campaign?
