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There is much upon which we can only speculate, but the hard facts tell us to leave

No one can predict the future. But based on the information we have, Britain should vote for Brexit.

Published:
John Mills leave.jpg
John Mills leave.jpg

John Mills is a donor to both openDemocracy and the campaign to leave the EU

As the debate on Brexit hots up it is increasingly clear that many of the issues in contention are generating a great deal of heat but not much light. So many of the assertions made depend on the assumptions behind them on which there are – quite legitimately – widely varying views.

Will every family in the country be £4,300 worse off per annum if we leave the EU, as the Chancellor alleges? Very probably not, but this does not stop a plausible case being made that it will if the markets all turn against the UK, as we were told would happen just before we left the Exchange Rate Mechanism in 1992. In fact, exactly the opposite occurred, inflation fell and the economy started 15 years of unbroken growth.