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Turkey’s election: voting to revisit the past?

Expect more Turkish turbulence and drama to come, and for Turkish politics to once again resemble the years preceding 2002.

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The big winner Serlahattin Demirtaş. Demotix/ Avni Kantan. All rights reserved.
The big winner Serlahattin Demirtaş. Demotix/ Avni Kantan. All rights reserved.

The big winner Serlahattin Demirtaş. Demotix/ Avni Kantan. All rights reserved.

Although the outcome of Turkey’s general election is undoubtedly dramatic, we should be careful not to exaggerate the death either of the ruling AKP or of the country’s President, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan.

Against a backdrop of falling growth and investment and rising unemployment and inflation, and with a foreign policy in disarray, the AKP nevertheless achieved around 41% of the vote. Its nearest rival, the CHP, which fought what was generally regarded as a good campaign, managed just 25% of the vote, an even lower share than in the 2011 election. Unlike the Conservative Party in the UK’s recent election, which won over half the seats with just 37% of the vote, the AKP’s seat total is roughly proportionate to its vote count.  The scale and longevity of the AKP’s electoral popularity remains unmatched in the Republic’s history.