With the Ukrainian army likely to start a military offensive in Donbas, is the war becoming too costly for Vladimir Putin, or is the current violent stalemate set to continue?
Until recently, the assumption has been the latter. If Russia was winning and Ukraine was losing, NATO would have far too much riding on the war to allow that situation to continue and would increase its interventions, but if Ukraine was winning and Russia losing, Putin could always threaten to escalate to more devastating weapons.
Is that still the case? Or are there now changes under way in the political outlook in Washington or Moscow?
