If a peace agreement is eventually reached between the Afghan government and the Taliban, there is little doubt that the insurgents will be established as a major power in the country. That is of little interest to Donald Trump, who is far more concerned with his re-election in November, an imperative which requires the US to declare peace and start to withdraw troops.
That is also the reason why he wants to reduce the number of US troops in northern and central Africa. But violent Islamists are strong there too, and likely to become stronger as Trump and his Western allies fail to address the root causes of that violence.
The deal done last week in Doha did not involve the Afghan government and was remarkably vague as to detail, including the nature of the ceasefire, and that has already begun to fray: the Taliban have resumed attacks right across the country, with 76 attacks reported in 24 provinces. One, against a checkpoint in Helmand province elicited a US air strike in response, the first in eleven days. But the more significant Taliban operation was in the northern Kunduz province bordering Tajikistan.
