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What sort of crisis is this?

Britain is in a deep crisis, but not a 2008-style emergency. And it reveals much about the underlying forces in our politics.

Published:
City_of_London_skyline_from_London_City_Hall_-_Oct_2008.jpg
City_of_London_skyline_from_London_City_Hall_-_Oct_2008.jpg

City of London, by Diliff, wikimedia

1. This isn’t an emergency

The bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers in September 2008 was an emergency. This was manifest in its rapid pace and the threat that it might spread exponentially, just like a fire. While the warning signs had been present for 18 months prior to the collapse of Lehmans, the emergency occurred over a series of hours, and demanded an immediate policy response. The state acted as a fire brigade on the basis that the emergency would otherwise have spiraled out of control. The fact that the financial crisis may have cost a sum of money comparable to a world war does not mean the rescue wasn't worth it, if the alternative was total social meltdown.

Brexit has a completely different rhythm, which is why comparisons to Lehmans don’t reveal very much. The weirdest thing about the past week has been the eerie sense of waiting for something to happen, the collapse of sterling not-withstanding. All that's happened so far is pretty much exactly what experts and policy-makers predicted, whereas experts were temporarily stumped during September 2008. Investors aren’t panicking, they’re simply responding as everyone said they would. It's the long-term future that is much more worrying. If Lehmans was a housefire (which was spreading), this is more like someone choosing to buy a house that the surveyor has found to be suffering long-term subsidence, but going ahead with the purchase anyway. Not only do the emergency services not care, they can't help you anyway. Meanwhile your insurance company (who you never liked in the first place) told you repeatedly they couldn't underwrite it. Buyer's remorse, indeed.