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The ghost of 1983 once again haunts Welsh Labour. Thirty two years ago, the Labour vote fell by 9.4% to 37.5% and the party won a dismal 20 seats. Fast forward to 2015 and for the second successive general election in Wales, Labour recorded a lower percentage share of the vote than in 1983 but due to a more even spread of its vote it obtained 25 seats, one fewer than five years ago. Losses to the Conservatives in Vale of Clwyd and Gower (a seat held by Labour for near on 100 years) reflected a general swing away from Labour in marginally held seats and top targets. The Conservatives’ haul of 11 seats is the best performance by the party in Wales since, yes you’ve guessed it, 1983. In the aftermath of the victory, leader of the Labour party in Wales, Carwyn Jones, was quick to accept that the party had under-performed but highlighted that Labour had once again seen off the nationalists. In some respects this is true, Plaid Cymru failed to register any significant increase in votes – Labour have ‘spiked their guns’[1]. But while Welsh Labour maintains a steely focus on the nationalist threat from Plaid, it has taken its eye off the ball elsewhere.
Labour in Wales is at a crossroads. With demographic changes in parts of Wales gradually making some seats equivalent to classic Conservative-Labour marginals in England. Indeed, in its established strongholds it now, perhaps for the first time, faces a credible threat in the form of a different nationalism, as the self-proclaimed ‘Party of Wales’ ended in fourth place in the overall vote by UKIP. The rise of UKIP in the Labour heartlands of south Wales and parts of north east Wales represents a significant threat to Labour’s long term dominance in these areas. In 2015, UKIP polled 13.6% of the overall vote in Wales, but in six constituencies it obtained around 18% or more. It performed particularly well in the south Wales valley seats – Islwyn, Caerphilly, Torfaen, Merthyr Tydfil and Rhymney – where future voters may now see it as the main threat to Labour. Crucially, it came second in six seats and a close third in a number of others. This is an important step forward. Voters, particularly in the case of third parties, are often reluctant to get behind their preferred party if they feel it has little chance of winning in their constituency.
