If the final YouGov poll is accurate (and Shaun Lawson's eloquent analysis of a large Tory lead over Labour wrong) then it seems Labour will get a few more seats than the Conservatives and Ed Miliband will shortly be in 10 Downing Street, at the head of a minority government with the media aghast and the Tories going into meltdown. The first few days could be decisive for Labour's future. It will need to establish a sense of freshness and legitimacy. Obviously it will announce the abolition of the bedroom tax and Tory NHS legislation, but these are merely restorative. Then there are big, determining policy issues to be delivered: what kind of constitutional convention and welfare reform, for example. But what Ed Miliband's government needs to do straightaway is create a novel direction and momentum, so that does not look like a return to the past. The key to this is releasing energy in others and bringing new forces into play. So here is a question, what would you do in this apparently very unlikely event, that is not necessarily in the manifesto, can be announced quickly and clearly points the country in the direction of renewal and democracy?
Here are four suggestions!
1. Announce a referendum on membership of the EU in September. Miliband said he didn't think EU membership was an immediate priority and opposed two years on uncertainty and renegotiation that Cameron pledged. But nearly half the electorate will have voted for parties that called for a referendum, hundreds of thousands of them Ukip supporters willing to sacrifice their vote to register their belief. Miliband should say he humbly recognises this as well as predictions that the issue will continue to blight the UK for ten years unless it is resolved. Therefore he wants it done swiftly and in a principled manner. Anti-EU sentiment declined during the election as people saw what Farage really stands for. I have no doubt that it would be won. And calling a referendum will split the Tories, gather the Lib Dems and the SNP behind Labour and resolve the issue of legitimacy, while taking the media and the right by surprise. Also, it will be good for democracy.
