“Global surface temperature will continue to increase until at least the mid-century under all emissions scenarios considered,” it says.
“Global warming of 1.5°C and 2°C will be exceeded during the 21st century unless deep reductions in carbon dioxide (CO2) and other greenhouse gas emissions occur in the coming decades.”
I was there, a dozen years ago, in Copenhagen, when governments negotiated over that difference between 1.5°C and 2°C – a difference that leaders of African and Pacific Island countries pointed out would likely define whether their whole countries remained habitable.
After we marched through the streets of the Danish capital, we knew we had failed. We were always going to. But twelve years later, we still need to understand that fact. Who is the ‘we’ who is willing to make these negotiations? Does it refer to all of us, or is it ultimately the royal ‘we’ of our rulers?
A few years before that conference in Copenhagen, my friends and I started to spot a trend. Politicians in Britain had stopped ignoring the significance of climate change and shifted, instead, to subtly deflecting blame. “Change your lightbulbs,” they told us. “Change the system,” we responded. But more people heard them than us. And fed up with being blamed, with being asked to carry the moral responsibility for existing in a system they did little to create, they harrumphed and did little.
Where individuals did pour their energy into reducing their personal carbon footprint, it made almost no difference. The rebound effect means that if one person uses less energy, then the price of energy falls, so someone else uses more. In January this year, New Scientist reported that any reduction in emissions from people buying electric cars was being cancelled out by other people buying SUVs.
And yet governments continue to try to say that the ‘us’ is all of us, that we must do our bit, that we must stop rinsing our plates before putting them in the dishwasher.
This, in a sense, is a form of climate change denial – the most pervasive form, the form that denies not the science, but responsibility.
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