Although there were faults with the agreement, it was widely considered the best available, but it all fell apart when Obama’s successor, Donald Trump, withdrew the US from the JCPOA in May 2018 and imposed tighter sanctions on Tehran.
Since then, Iran has seen itself as something of a free agent not bound by the agreement, but, conscious of the views of other JCPOA states and the change of administration in the US, it has maintained tolerable relations with the IAEA.
It has not, however, abided fully with the deal, no doubt because it believes it should be in a position to move towards a nuclear capability at short notice – perhaps in the event of a Trumpist in the White House in two years’ time or Israeli military action sooner than that.
In January 2021, the IAEA reported that Iran was enriching uranium to 20% of the fissile U-235 isotope, well beyond what is required for nuclear power generation (around 4% U-235). There have been recent indications of even higher enrichment – as much as 84.5%, which is very close to weapons-grade (typically around 90%, depending partly on weapon design).
These were the sources of the current tensions that Grossi and the IAEA are working to overcome, but the national politics of both Israel and Iran are inevitably having their own effect.
Effect of protests in Israel and Iran
Take Israel first. The determination of the new far-right government to limit the power of the judiciary while accelerating Israeli settlement of the occupied Palestinian territories has produced a forceful public reaction.
The backlash has even extended to the usually loyal Israeli armed forces, with some military reservists refusing to train. This includes the elite 69 Squadron – 37 out of 40 pilots said they would join public protests against the proposed changes rather than take part in training exercises. They later rescinded the decision apart from one day of action but this is the most glaring indication of wider opposition within the Israeli Defence Force to Netanyahu’s plans and exceeds anything seen in recent years.
A key intelligence and cyber group, Unit 8200, whose graduates The New York Times described as having “helped drive the country’s tech industry, as well as elite combat units” have also spoken out against the plans, while the head of Mossad, Israel’s domestic security agency, has approved a request from staff to take part in protests.
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