Debris from fighting between forces of Salva Kiir and Riek Machar, in July, 2016 in Juba, South Sudan. Samir Bol / Press Association. All rights reserved.The South Sudanese political landscape has become frighteningly unpredictable. It is nearly impossible to address one crisis without another more serious one cropping up.
The political risks were low while the economy boomed, but became high once it began to crash under the weight of a trinity of shocks to the polity: South Sudan’s suicidal decision to shutdown its oil production over a row with neighboring Sudan in 2012, global crumbling of crude oil prices, and the civil war that broke out in December 2013.
The signs of a conflict erupting and the build-up of tensions, marked by a sequence of revenge killings, were visible to the coalition government in Juba during the first week of July 2016, yet the government was unable to prevent them. Some analysts have said this failure is due to a lack of command and control from top leadership.
