Four days into the war in Ukraine, with the Russian advance slowed by unexpected Ukrainian resistance, Vladimir Putin made his first threat of escalation, implying the use of tactical nuclear weapons if NATO became heavily involved in supporting Ukraine. Since then, the threat of escalation has always been in the background – and has occasionally come to the fore.
The most recent example of this is the announcement from Moscow that Russian nuclear weapons will be forward-based in Belarus. These will mainly be nuclear-armed versions of the Iskander missile, which will be placed close to Belarus’s western border with NATO states. Russia will also train Belarusian pilots in flying planes capable of carrying nuclear weapons.
Of itself this is not new. Nuclear weapons were based in Belarus during the Cold War, but in the current context the symbolism is clear enough: Putin is backing up his nuclear threats with more facts on the ground. Meanwhile, the United States is upgrading the nuclear storage facilities at Lakenheath, its main air base in the UK, meaning that tactical nuclear weapons can be based there again, after a 15-year lapse.
