Waer district, Homs, after rebel fighters evacuate in May 2017. (c) Omar Sanadiki/Reuters/PA Images. All rights reserved.Over the past eight months, Russia has increasingly seized the initiative in charting the political and military course of events in Syria. With the United States focused on the fight against Islamic State in Raqqa, Moscow has engineered, with Ankara’s cooperation, a number of “de-escalation zones” in the country, covering the four primary areas of regime-rebel contact. At the same time, Russia has loudly trumpeted the rebuilding of several prominent mosques in Syria as flagship projects aimed at demonstrating its benevolent intentions. Recently-uncovered documents have also revealed that Russian firms have made major strides in securing economic boons for the immediate postwar period. Despite this, the Kremlin continues to face profound issues in projecting its influence across regime-held Syria, a problem that demands ever-growing resources even as major combat in the country declines.
Russia is significantly expanding its forces in Syria. In contrast to announcements of success and subsequent withdrawal made by Vladimir Putin in March 2016 and January 2017, Russia continues to deploy ever-more ground troops to Syria. Around the time of the latest round of international negotiations in Astana in early July, Moscow spent roughly a month reconstituting and preparing its new ranks of military police destined for Syria, with no reliable reports of these units emerging for most of July. Suddenly, 24 July saw a flurry of activity, beginning with the deployment of roughly 400 Russian personnel to the Daraa de-escalation zone in southwest Syria, where they set up two checkpoints and ten observation posts near the Israeli-controlled Golan Heights.
The next day, video emerged of a Russian checkpoint operating in East Ghouta, establishing a Russian ground presence in the second of four de-escalation zones in the country. On 26 July, Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu confirmed a major development, stating that Russia presently had four military police battalions operating in Syria, eclipsing the previous total of two to three such units. Shoigu also stated that these battalions were from Russia’s Southern Military District, a region which includes the North Caucasus, thus indicating the Sunni Muslim composition of most or all of the units. This marked growth shows Moscow’s seriousness in implementing its painstakingly-negotiated ceasefire regimes in western Syria.
