Three weeks from the first anniversary of the start of Russia’s ‘special military operation’ in Ukraine and there is no end in sight. Russia’s ‘short war’ failed from day one and has now degenerated into an appallingly violent stalemate of relentless killing and destruction, which looks set to continue for many months and possibly years.
In early November there seemed to be a chance that the Russian leadership might opt for talks, having been forced to withdraw from the south Ukraine city of Kherson, but that came to nothing. Instead, Vladimir Putin has mobilised many tens of thousands more young men, who are quickly being fed into the fighting. This past week has seen a substantial increase in artillery barrages and troop movements and there are strong suspicions that this is a prelude to a full-scale offensive in the spring.
Putin can still rely on support at home, especially from older Russians who recall Western governments’ contempt for Russia after the end of the Cold War. He can even claim that this is now a NATO/Russian war – feeding a narrative he has been using for more than two decades.
