The outcome of the latest presidential election in Belarus was known before the date was set. Unlike the 2010 presidential election, or the elections that preceded them, the vast majority of the opposition had more or less reached a consensus rather early on after the election was announced for Autumn 2015.
Essentially, the key players agreed that they would neither participate in the election, nor would they contest the results with street protests. And here is where Lukashenka and the opposition’s concerns, almost incidentally, coincide: should there be any social upheaval, no matter how small, it could possibly be used by the Kremlin to supplant Minsk’s leadership and subvert the country’s sovereignty.
Lukashenka has been on the diplomatic offensive with the west for some time now and it is starting to pay dividends at last. Indeed, months and months of mid-level meetings between EU and Belarusian diplomats, and contact with the U.S., coupled with the release of several more high profile political prisoners in September and Lukashenka’s role as mediator in the Ukraine conflict, have softened the west’s position on Belarus.
