Vladimir Putin’s 9 May ‘Victory Day’ speech surprised most security analysts and political commentators. It was assumed the Russian president would either declare victory in Donbas – whatever the reality on the ground – and continue with the war while quietly looking for a negotiated settlement, or order a state-wide mobilisation and the vigorous pursuit of victory. We got neither.
Instead, Putin re-wrote the war in Ukraine as a response to direct NATO aggression, which he framed in the context of Russia’s victory in The Great Patriotic War of 1941-45.Ukraine was likened to the German Nazis, with the two combining to threaten Russia.
This may seem like nonsense but it helps to provide a convincing picture to many Russians, aided by NATO’s expansion eastwards in the late 1990s, which has continued more recently, and the close military relationship forged between Ukraine and several NATO member states.
